History is merely a list of surprises. It can only prepare us to be surprised yet again

Sometimes you have to look back to move forward…

I love memorable quotations.

Phrases that sum up a vast and often complex subject in just a few words.

And recently I have had cause to reflect on some of my favourite quotes. They have seemed most apt…

Reading the news, I see our beloved UK Government has decided to renationalise the railways. This about 30 years after they were privatised.

Those of a certain age will recall that the reason they were privatised was because of the poor track record; of bad service, inadequate infrastructure and low staff morale that beset the industry. Is it just me or are those not the self-same reasons being touted as justification for renationalising now!

Good or bad is not a binary choice. There are nuances, shades of grey, in these things. If you swap one unsatisfactory system out in favour of reinstating the previous unsatisfactory system, guess what!?! You get… An unsatisfactory system!

The railway barons should study silk purse manufacturing and understand that they do not start with a sow’s ear, not if they want a great product. Surely this is political hubris. Wouldn’t the sane option be to come up with an untried solution; having concluded that we have successfully identified two ways (nationalised and privatised) that didn’t work? Why repeat the mistakes of history? And anyway, its not about who owns the railways, but where the necessary investment is going to come from, that matters.

Point to a highly regarded UK Government transport initiative that is well known for providing an excellent service at an affordable price for the people. Go on. I challenge you… because I can’t!

“If history and science have taught us anything, it is that passion and desire are not the same as truth.” E.O. Wilson.

Recently I went with my wife to buy a new hob for our kitchen. We wanted gas. But the salesman waxed lyrical about induction hobs.

Induction hobs, we were informed, were cleaner, more controllable and more economical than anything else. What a schmuck I was, to even imagine having gas rather than this amazing product (which looked like an electric cooking ring to me!). This, we were assured, was “the right choice.”

Somewhat unconvinced I asked the salesmen “name a professional kitchen anywhere in the UK that has fitted these.” He couldn’t. That shut him up (although to be fair upon subsequently checking I found one high profile kitchen that did, but shortly afterwards reverted to gas… the installation had been sponsored by an induction hob manufacturer!)! You see, look to history and the track record and you can clearly see what you should not be doing going forward.

“Denial is the way people handle what they cannot handle.” Shannon L. Alder

And another thing…

According to the Prime Minister, Sir Kier Starmer, there is no reason that the UK cannot be close buddies with both the USA and the EU, even if they go head to head in a tariff war. Really!?!

You think Donald and Ursula, faced with billions of dollars/euros in losses courtesy of tariffs, are going to play nice!?! Do you think they will ask the UK to “please favour us with your trade if you would not mind… We would be awfully grateful” Or do you think ‘the Donald’ will tell it like it is…“You are either with us or against us… Pick a side…”

The whole history of the world is summed up in the fact that, “when nations are strong, they are not always just, and when they wish to be just, they are no longer strong.” Winston Churchill

On a note closer to home at ASEL we use the past to prepare for the future every hour of every day. After all, that is an essential part of risk modelling. By studying what has happened in the past we are able to predict what is likely to happen in the future. That modelling takes into account a wide variety of factors that history, again, has shown us are relevant in coming to conclusions about what is likely to happen. And again, once we know what is likely to happen, we can then turn our attention to what is likely to be the best way to deal with it.

And because our bank of experiential data is growing all the time, in real time as we monitor and respond to challenges across all of our clients’ estates; we can use history to constantly update our future plans using our AI powered systems. Empirical data, modeled dispassionately accurately reflecting what has happened.

However, even with such a detailed understanding of what has happened and why, we still also prepare for a range of outcomes and not just one because…

“History is merely a list of surprises. It can only prepare us to be surprised yet again.” Kurt Vonnegut

Even so I would rather be prepared than not. Because “By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail.”