“Walking on Sunshine”?

As things start to heat up, the song might change to “Summertime Blues”…

Finally! I can play my fave Katrina & The Waves track without bemoaning the state of the climate.

The sunshine has arrived. Three weeks late, but they do say “better late than never.”

As I write the summer solstice is in prospect. Not only a sacred day for druids and the newly repainted Stone Henge (thanks for that “Stop Oil”), but a brilliant one to be walking the beach at any time, especially with my crazy spaniel, Izzy.

The sun never seems to quite set on the Dorset coast at this time of year. Beautiful bright mornings and dusky pink sunsets after dinner. Terrific!

And now that the sun has got his hat on (I am a human juke box, I am!), time to roll out the faithful BBQ, commit crimes against the culinary arts with a few overcooked steaks, sit in the sun with friends and family and down a beer, or wine… or some of both… and sit back this weekend. Perhaps even watch a spot of cricket or support the national team and watch the football.

Weather forecasters predict that weather is heating up. Temperatures are climbing. Next week – all week – is set fair.

And oh, how we in the UK have been longing for this! The topic of conversation has been of little else. Where oh where had summer gone to? Well now it is here in all its glory – Euros ‘n’ all.

But perhaps we should take heed of changing situations elsewhere and be careful what we wish for.

The BBC headlines are a chilling reminder that climate change is bringing much uncertainty to this time of year.

“Heat alerts for 70 million in US”, where thousands of people are reported to be suffering heat related health issues and wildfires sweep across California causing the destruction of 25sq miles of brushland – the largest such event in the history of the State.

“Severe heatwave continues across India” where for weeks now the daytime temperatures have been consistently in the upper 40s. The monsoons are eagerly anticipated to bring respite, but disconcertingly where rain has now finally begun to fall, it is 20% less than anticipated.

“Hundreds feared dead in Hajj heat” where the annual pilgrimage, the largest movement of people every year numbering some 1.3 million pilgrims, is thought to have led to the loss of over 1,000 lives owing to the hot conditions. Every year, sadly, the pilgrimage seems to take 5 or 6 lives, but this year is unprecedented.

I think the unpredictability of the weather underscores that times are changing. And not just meteorologically.

For retail too the challenge has never been greater with all of the various pressures now familiar to all… but still recited ad nauseum by politicians of every hew at the least provocation!

However, as inflation drops to the target 2% the Bank of England keeps base rate at the highest level for over 16 years. And as the weather heats up, I think we can safely say that challenges to retail are going to escalate too…

Right now, there are 45,000 incidents of retail crime every single day in this country.

A staggering 7 in 10 retail workers have been abused in the last 12 months. And it is only getting worse.

According to research by USDAW, there has been a 38% increase in the incidents of violence towards retail workers. In just the past year, the most serious cases of abuse including racial abuse, sexual harassment, physical assaults and threats with weapons against shopworkers rose 50%.

It wasn’t long ago our frontline workers were applauded – now we can’t even offer them the basic decency of safety.

And in almost 70% of cases the police didn’t turn up. The system is so underfunded and under-resourced that it can’t even protect our frontline workers.

So, what can retailers do to protect themselves?

Jack Welch, Chairman and CEO of General Electric (GE) between 1981 and 2001, said that the first stage in dealing with these challenges is to adopt the Realty Principle – Face reality as it is, not as it was or as you wish it to be. Most mistakes that leaders make arise from not being willing to face reality and then acting on it.

To act on this advice, you can take three simple steps:

First assess the risks across your entire estate.

For example, when are you open and when are you closed, and what are the implications of that. When are your busy times. Look at each store’s demography – the post code – and look for proximity to local schools. What is the local level of unemployment. Is there a university or college nearby with students; 31% of Gen Z admit to shoplifting and student hi jinx is linked with drunken incidents in store. What are the local issues with policing, terror and other threats.

Second, from this data modelling produce useable recommendations and actions.

For example, when should you use static security or mobile, deploy keyholders or add temporary security – ideally all four will be utilised as appropriate. At times of peak risk to petty theft you may deploy an additional security guard. Has he been trained in conflict de-escalation and if not which course and by when before he is deployed It can be as granular as that across thousands of stores.

And finally, once the risk has been assessed and modelled, work continually to make sure what you are doing is working.

There is no question, that with the weather heating up so are the challenges being faced by retailers. Nobody can afford to just keep on doing the same thing and hoping it gets better. Everyone needs, in my view, to adopt the Reality Principle.

And if that seems too costly or complicated using your present security partner, please drop me a line. I’d be happy to help.